Scenarios, storylines and structured reasoning

We develop scenarios and storylines that help you reason about consequences and identify possibilities that are foreseeable, not just predictable.

Every sentence is grounded in evidence and backed by an inferential chain that makes assumptions and reasoning explicit and open to interrogation. For those with disclosure obligations, the mandated warming scenarios are handled properly – and then put to work for strategy, not just compliance.

Where probabilities can’t be defended, we build coherent and internally consistent storylines of events, which are grounded in how climate and other dependent systems actually behave. We also cover the compounding and cascading events and conditions that single-hazard analysis misses.

In our workshops, we use those scenarios, storylines and structured reasoning techniques to elicit in-house knowledge and data, stress-test your systems and processes, and discover where your thresholds and triggers for action are. Where there is disagreement about consequences and their meaning and value, this is put on the record and made productive.

• A set of scenarios and storylines relevant to your goals and the time frames and the geographies you operate in
• Assessments of foreseeable consequences in those scenarios or storylines
• New information about stress thresholds, in-house capability and capacities, and your appetite for risk.

Scenarios, whether they are for stress-testing, planning or transformation, have not realised their potential because they are not grounded in the material conditions on which change can happen.

Talk to us about using scenarios, storylines and structured reasoning.